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 Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 05:55 Post subject: If the ecconemy keeps.... |
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Getting worse, what do you really think would happen since there hasn't been one for so many years?
Just wondering what everyone thinks it would be like?
Is it as bad as what everyone is making it out to be?
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:02 Post subject: |
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In some countries.
In Canada, the economy isnt that bad. Its not great by the least. But its no where need as bad as the US's and other countries.
Im not too worried.
And my sector, the manufactoring sector, is picking up again. So its not that bad for Canada. Mostly because we had alot of security measures in place when this thing hit.
The, I cant remember the initials, IIHF i think. Said Canada should be a model for the countries who are suffering badly. I guess they cant do it now till their economies stabilize, but I bet some european countries will adopt the safety measures we have (organizations and such).
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:03 Post subject: |
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If shit really hits the fan?
More people in poverty, living off welfare. Raised taxes to compensate for it. More unemployment as many companies go bankrupt, further increase in depression/suicides. More people downgrading their employment (eg. academics taking substandard work just because unemployment will be more risky). Increase in childbirth. Decrease in people engaging in digital communication (eg. Internet), increase in left-winged politics popularity, increase in "solidarity", some eastern countries adopting a new form of communisms, less individualisms & more solidarity. More wars.
I also think fisk should be unbanned.
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:10 Post subject: |
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Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars?
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:15 Post subject: |
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| gingerninjaaaaaa wrote: | | Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars? |
I hope Obama really does affect change. He's got alot on his shoulders and is taking over the country during the worst time in US history since the 30's.
I hope he comes through, I truly do. He's intelligent, knows his shit etc
If anyone can help (or maybe even fix) this economic crisis, its him.
Cause while Canada isnt doing that bad, if the US was back on track, Canada (and alot of other nations) will hugely affected (in a good way of course). |
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:16 Post subject: |
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| gingerninjaaaaaa wrote: | | Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars? |
Well, there will naturally still be wars, and the U.S. will be involved in many, just because it is a nation that is important in the world. It gets involved because it, at the core has a genuine ideal that it wishes upon the world. It's just that some Republicans, like Bush fail at the proper execution.
Look historically, there have been successful presidents that have proven to the world that war isn't just a source of evil. It can be an instrument of good as well. Eisenhower (WWII) comes into mind, as well as Clinton (Balkans) and perhaps Kennedy (Cuba, Vietnam).
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:16 Post subject: |
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| gingerninjaaaaaa wrote: | | Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars? |
Bush aint gone yet, he's got about 2 months left and really, does anyone doubt he's capable of one BIG more fuck up? |
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:21 Post subject: |
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| dominae wrote: | | gingerninjaaaaaa wrote: | | Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars? |
Well, there will naturally still be wars, and the U.S. will be involved in many, just because it is a nation that is important in the world. It gets involved because it, at the core has a genuine ideal that it wishes upon the world. It's just that some Republicans, like Bush fail at the proper execution.
Look historically, there have been successful presidents that have proven to the world that war isn't just a source of evil. It can be an instrument of good as well. Eisenhower (WWII) comes into mind, as well as Clinton (Balkans) and perhaps Kennedy (Cuba, Vietnam). |
Agreed.
If it wasnt for Jack Kennedy (Jack was his nickname, I know his name is John) hadnt done what he did, we may all be living Fallout 3
As for the WW2 thing, yes the americans did their part. But if it wasnt for England, Canada, Russia and the US, the Nazi's would have won.
So no one person can take the glory.
All the allies deserve equal respect
And lets not forget. The only reason the US entered WW2 was because they were attacked. England, Canada and Russia were there in 39...the US didnt enter the war till 42.
Still, like i said, all the Allies deserve equal credit as well all suffered millions of loses
edited for typos |
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 06:45 Post subject: |
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We'll see. No one truly knows, but personally I think dominae nailed it. You'll see a transfer of power from the West to the East (Turkey, possibly Egypt, possibly Iran, China, India). Tho, you could also see a major reversal of course, and Obama implementing FDR like policies that kick start the American economy, you could see the development of alternative fuels which kill off dependence of Middle Eastern oil, significantly changing the geo politics in the region. Maybe we might see a reignition of the balkan conflicts after the UMPOFOR or whatever the fuck finally pulls out in 2009, and we have a proxy war in between US and resurgent Russia. You might see China make a move on Taiwan and reintegrate em undercutting how weak the US has become.
It all depends. Personally I'm crossing my fingers that Obama gets our shit together. I'd much rather have America dominating the world than China. But the best would be if no one dominated anybody, and we just lived in an era of peace...
Watch the auto industry of the US. It's only a matter of time before they collapse, and when they do that will knock the gong on the depression that's about to hit us. Millions of unemployed, currency deflating along with our GDP... sad times ahead. Cross your fingers and hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Sense Amid Madness, Wit Amidst Folly
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 07:37 Post subject: |
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If the Big 3 do go bankrupt, another company will have to step in and snatch up their assets. Those factories can't go to waste whether they are continued for vehicle production or retooled for something else.
The problem is even if the Auto Industry is given the Loan in the amount requested the number of jobs lost from implementing a new and profitable business model is still significant. Given that GM is burning 5 billion a month, they'd be out of money in no time. But they do have on their side the fact that the new union contracts come into play in 2010 which will lower their operating costs.
I think they should be forced to go through with bankruptcy. The US government should not bail them out on any terms. The biggest problem is NOT quality control or work ethic, but the sheer amount of money involved in labor, unions and etc. While it would be a tough pill to swallow for those line workers who are retired now and the many potential layoffs impending, but for the long term survival against the Japanese and other brands requires a complete overhaul of business strategy and management. If this doesn't happen I believe that in 10 years there will be no GM, Ford, and Chrysler. A bailout is throwing money away at a company that's failed to stay competitive.
Go damage control and save taxpayer's dollars.
I mean look at the horrible inefficiency: Why are there Chevy trucks AND GM trucks? They have Ford/Mercury, Chevy/GMC, Dodge/Chrysler really all basically the same vehicle with different badging. Have they not once thought about consolidating their lineup?
Aren't the Union workers getting paid exorbitant amounts for sitting in a chair watching over a production line? Not to mention this created the entire "Auto Mechanic" field in highschool so that kids grow up and learn to adopt a skill less occupation. Wish they'd wipe out the union agreements now.
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 12:04 Post subject: |
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| gingerninjaaaaaa wrote: | | Don't forget bush has gone now, just hope Obama can reverse his trend with wars? |
Naive... To even think that.
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CaptainCox
VIP Member
Posts: 6823
Location: A Swede in Germany (FaM)
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| Posted: Sat, 22nd Nov 2008 12:19 Post subject: |
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Working for a car company I am following this news pretty closely.
However, my company (Mitsubishi) have been doing "clean ups" for over 5 years now.
We had to when we separated from Daimler/Chrysler. So in a way we are sort of prepared for bad times, although we are still taking measures to cut costs even more.
If even one of the big3 goes down it will have huge consequences globally, mainly due to suppliers and sub suppliers etc. Some of them work exclusively for some of these companies.
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 00:09 Post subject: |
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The economy isn't indexed by a number like DJI. The numbers don't matter as much as some people would want it to seem, what drives the economy is production and consumption. A very important indicator is employment, as it was explained to me by someone I believe is an authority on the matter. Basically, he says, that this "crisis" isn't going to mean dick to most people. Just worse loan conditions and the like...
Hm, now that I think about it, there was a guy on the Daily Show that said exactly the same thing. Some nobel prize winner. So this is maybe googlable since all eps are now free on their site.
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 00:57 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | The economy isn't indexed by a number like DJI. The numbers don't matter as much as some people would want it to seem, what drives the economy is production and consumption. A very important indicator is employment, as it was explained to me by someone I believe is an authority on the matter. Basically, he says, that this "crisis" isn't going to mean dick to most people. Just worse loan conditions and the like...
Hm, now that I think about it, there was a guy on the Daily Show that said exactly the same thing. Some nobel prize winner. So this is maybe googlable since all eps are now free on their site. |
Seriously? Have you been talking to John 'the fundamentals are sound' McCain again? I don't want to use cliches like 'global economy' and stuff like that but there have been hundreds of dumbed-down, very patronising and scary reports over how the crisis is going to affect (another cliche here) the common man. And what is your definition of 'most people' btw?
Does it include people who are losing jobs as companies try to survive the slow-down? How about people who were planning to retire but see their pension funds losing value? Are people who run small businesses insulated from feeling the squeeze that the big companies are going to put on them? Maybe things are not as bad as they portray and maybe Iceland doesn't really need that IMF loan. Nor do the other countries lining up for similar loans. Do you know the conditions that come with those loans? I could go on but my point is no company (or country for that matter) is an island unto its own and everyone will feel the effects to different degrees.
And you should know better than to believe some 'expert' because ALL the experts got it wrong and NOBODY saw it coming except for one or two who nobody believed. You're right about the production and consumption part though and especially that latter is a function of confidence, hence the term consumer confidence. And that is a reliable indicator of future spending.
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 01:16 Post subject: |
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Even though you're right, I guess what's patronising is never going to change though? politicians talking in terms of absolutes with regards to cross section averages and statistics?
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 02:08 Post subject: |
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BRING ON THE FUCKING NUCLEAR WASTELAND ALREADY I WANT TO KILL & STEAL MY PAYCHECK!!
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 02:49 Post subject: |
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| FireMaster wrote: | | BRING ON THE FUCKING NUCLEAR WASTELAND ALREADY I WANT TO KILL & STEAL MY PAYCHECK!! |
i want to talk to a random guy@a bar and blow up a town
cockcockcockcockcockcockcockcockcockcockcockcock
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 04:56 Post subject: |
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I dont think the power will shift from the west to the east.
Cause in like next 10 or 20 years, the east's fresh water supply is gunna go dry. And where is most of the fresh water located in this world? The West/NA (more specifically, Canada).
So they may win the short battle, but the west will win the war, so to speak.
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 14:31 Post subject: |
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| swingman wrote: | | PoorLeno wrote: | The economy isn't indexed by a number like DJI. The numbers don't matter as much as some people would want it to seem, what drives the economy is production and consumption. A very important indicator is employment, as it was explained to me by someone I believe is an authority on the matter. Basically, he says, that this "crisis" isn't going to mean dick to most people. Just worse loan conditions and the like...
Hm, now that I think about it, there was a guy on the Daily Show that said exactly the same thing. Some nobel prize winner. So this is maybe googlable since all eps are now free on their site. |
Seriously? Have you been talking to John 'the fundamentals are sound' McCain again? I don't want to use cliches like 'global economy' and stuff like that but there have been hundreds of dumbed-down, very patronising and scary reports over how the crisis is going to affect (another cliche here) the common man. And what is your definition of 'most people' btw?
Does it include people who are losing jobs as companies try to survive the slow-down? How about people who were planning to retire but see their pension funds losing value? Are people who run small businesses insulated from feeling the squeeze that the big companies are going to put on them? Maybe things are not as bad as they portray and maybe Iceland doesn't really need that IMF loan. Nor do the other countries lining up for similar loans. Do you know the conditions that come with those loans? I could go on but my point is no company (or country for that matter) is an island unto its own and everyone will feel the effects to different degrees.
And you should know better than to believe some 'expert' because ALL the experts got it wrong and NOBODY saw it coming except for one or two who nobody believed. You're right about the production and consumption part though and especially that latter is a function of confidence, hence the term consumer confidence. And that is a reliable indicator of future spending. |
I've spent 10 minutes trying to find that interview from Daily Show and failed. I guess I have nothing to back my claims up with, since I'm not educated on the matter. I think worrying too much about things you don't understand (like LHC worries some people) is a bit silly and counterproductive. We could argue that economic slowdowns are, seemingly, just the curiosities of the periodic function of time, and it'll all blow over in a few years.
I'm not ready to storm the super-duper-mart in search of food, stempaks and shelter just yet.  |
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 14:45 Post subject: |
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The big 3 auto companies wont go under. Cause it wont only put millions of americans and canadians outta work (causing a depression), it will also impact a ton of other industries ie metal making shops, shops that make bolts and screws and shit, tire factories etc
But I like Michael Moore's approach to the 25B bailout. Give it to them with conditions. First off, Ceo's are capped at 5 million a year, no private jets (if anyone watched the congressional hearing this week, you know what Im talking about - each ceo from GM, Crysaller and Ford flew from Detroit to DC in 36 million dollar private jets and the round trip cost 20grand in fuel...if they flew first class commercially, a round trip would have cost $1800.
Secondly, get rid of all the current management as obviously they have run the companies into the ground and have been for the past 4 years
Thirdly, have the Gov take the reigns and say "We will give you the bailout, but we determine what kinda cars you build" ie hybrids and other really fuel effecient cars.
Thats what Roosevelt did during WW2.
Thats why no one buys the big 3 cars. They are gas gusselers (sp?). Where as you can buy fuel efficent cars or hybrids from Toyota or Honda and other Japanese manufactor's.
GM's moto for the past 40 years has been "we will build what we want and the public will buy it"....its not like that anymore as they are finding out.
And like, I think it was the Ford CEO, his company last year lost 4billion in sales, yet he made 20 million plus bonus'....thats not right and is borderline criminal.
All ceo's of companies should have their salaries capped at 5 million a year.
That way they could give their employee's full health benefits, good wages, more vacation time etc
But all they care about is making that 20+ million a year, fuck the worker ya know?
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 15:49 Post subject: |
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SycoShaman
VIP Master Jedi
Posts: 24468
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 15:52 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | | Ah, you mean socialism! |
in a sense   |
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| Posted: Sun, 23rd Nov 2008 23:03 Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | But all they care about is making that 20+ million a year, fuck the worker ya know? |
But they must realize that if they continue with the "fuck the worker" attitude, no one will want to work with them because other companies offer better benefits. It's all a competition man, of course they've gonna minimize how much their workers get, but they can only do it so much before they get fucked over by the competitive offers of other companies. That is the great thing about capitalism.
As for the auto bailout, why would we give it to them? All we would be doing is giving a lifeline to a failing enterprise. They've had a year to change their practices, but they didn't. Their continued irresponsibility shows they aren't willing to change their ways. It would be much better to use those 25Bs to help the workers through unemployment and finding new jobs. I'm not very worried over the future of the CEOs, let em rot along with their decadent companies that have literally just become black holes for cash. Another option is to use the 25B to fund research companies/universities that are exploring the implementation of gas-efficient cars, or need help kickstarting their company and starting to produce them.
Sense Amid Madness, Wit Amidst Folly
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| Posted: Mon, 24th Nov 2008 07:44 Post subject: |
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I'm pretty disgusted by union workers complaining because their extortion isn't working out as they planned.
GM base wage = $28/hr ( x 2080 = $58k/yr)
Wage including OT, shift diffs, etc = $39.68 ( x 2080 = 82,534/yr)
Benefits (healthcare, pension, etc) = $33.58/hr
Total compensation = $73.26/hr = $152,380.80/yr
$60K+ a year with a highschool diploma! Damn, wish I jumped on the bandwagon.
The "Rubber Room" -
http://wsjclassroom.com/archive/06may/auto2_jobsbank.htm
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| Posted: Mon, 24th Nov 2008 08:28 Post subject: |
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bet most of those gm workers are living outside there means though and wont find another job paying so well with good benefits
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LeoNatan
☢ NFOHump Despot ☢
Posts: 73196
Location: Ramat Gan, Israel 🇮🇱
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| Posted: Mon, 24th Nov 2008 08:35 Post subject: |
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| dominae wrote: | If shit really hits the fan?
More people in poverty, living off welfare. Raised taxes to compensate for it. More unemployment as many companies go bankrupt, further increase in depression/suicides. More people downgrading their employment (eg. academics taking substandard work just because unemployment will be more risky). Increase in childbirth. Decrease in people engaging in digital communication (eg. Internet), increase in left-winged politics popularity, increase in "solidarity", some eastern countries adopting a new form of communisms, less individualisms & more solidarity. More wars. |
Don't forget totalitarian regimes coming into power... Hitler and his party rose to power due in large part to the economical depression in the US (that in turn reflected on the world, especially in Europe). |
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deelix
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Location: Norway
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