Investing/economics
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Mister_s




Posts: 19863

PostPosted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 19:40    Post subject:
Mchart wrote:
Mister_s wrote:
There are also sites mentioning EXXI is preparing for a chapter 11 since bonds are being dumped for cents and they hired "restructuring advisers". I don't exactly know what all this means though Sad


No, Franklin is dumping their position / or swap is taking place. It is likely that EXXI is buying said bonds. Either way this is a positive effect for EXXI as they are wiping out their 2018 debt for practically nothing which means this is putting them farther away from BK. It makes zero sense for whomever is buying these bonds to buy them if BK was in the works as these are unsecured notes. EXXI has basically had $2 billion in debt wiped out in the past couple days for only $30 million.

Thanks for clearing that up.
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Sat, 6th Feb 2016 02:28    Post subject:
HubU wrote:
Mchart wrote:
HubU wrote:


They still operate at a loss, aren't they? So even if they buy back cheap debt, they create some more everyday by not generating a profit, or am I completely wrong?


They aren't taking on new debt, they're burning through cash. Buying the bonds clears out some debt which means less cash that need be burned as less interest.


Yeah, so they're just burning money more efficiently.


Right, but $30 mil for $2bil cleared is pretty god damn efficient.
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HubU
VIP Member



Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Sat, 6th Feb 2016 09:59    Post subject:
I wasn't trying to be a smartass, just trying to figure out how monday's news are going to be percieved.


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Sat, 6th Feb 2016 19:42    Post subject:
HubU wrote:
I wasn't trying to be a smartass, just trying to figure out how monday's news are going to be percieved.


It really all depends on if they are the ones actually doing it or not. Although even if they aren't buying back their own debt it makes zero sense for someone to be buying $30 mil worth of bonds on unsecured debt if the company is going to declare bankruptcy.
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kazuma_kiryu




Posts: 152
Location: Japan (日本); South Africa.
PostPosted: Sun, 7th Feb 2016 14:15    Post subject:
Last chance to buy a couple of stock points, Oil will go up next month, also the same for Gold.
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Sun, 7th Feb 2016 18:59    Post subject:
kazuma_kiryu wrote:
Last chance to buy a couple of stock points, Oil will go up next month, also the same for Gold.


Could as easily go down.

Again this is a speculative value investment.
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Il_Padrino




Posts: 7501
Location: Greece by the North Sea
PostPosted: Mon, 8th Feb 2016 17:12    Post subject:
Down it is Very Happy

I'm averaging down on CRK now, EXXI is getting too risky lately. No idea where they could go.


There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Mon, 8th Feb 2016 19:06    Post subject:
It's a crapshoot; that's why I leave some funds in long term and forget about them and daytrade with other funds.

Short term I do expect the price to go up quite a bit after ER assuming they are the ones buying back their own debt.
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whited




Posts: 347
Location: Close to New Center of Evil
PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 13:27    Post subject:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/goldman-sees-more-oil-swings-that-could-drag-price-below-20

Code:
Oil could drop below $20 a barrel as the search for a level that brings supply and demand back into balance makes prices even more volatile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted.
Capacity to store crude has been exhausted in some places, said Jeff Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research. Prices may need to drop low enough to halt crude output that can no longer be stockpiled, he said.
“Once you breach storage capacity, prices have to spike below cash costs because you have to shut in production almost immediately,” Currie said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Volatility will surge and he “wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens.”
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farne




Posts: 3730

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 14:07    Post subject:
Sounds to me like fear.
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HubU
VIP Member



Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 17:14    Post subject:
Didn't GS say the opposite a few weeks ago? Who trusts their "analysis"? They just want the wind to blow their investments' way, just like the rest of them.

But yeah, I think february/march will be the best of times Smile


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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HubU
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Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 19:26    Post subject:
The Feds, this bunch of thieves, wanted to up the interest rates, called off their march meeting, and there is talk of negative interest rates in the US (in Japan it's already on motion).

Soon, in a currency collapse near you, Yellen will tell you all is fine.


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Il_Padrino




Posts: 7501
Location: Greece by the North Sea
PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 19:50    Post subject:
Yeah, gold is up by 20% in the last 3 weeks. Something's gonna implode.


There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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HubU
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Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 20:02    Post subject:
Il_Padrino wrote:
Yeah, gold is up by 20% in the last 3 weeks. Something's gonna implode.


Bubbles will go *pop*! Like China will collapse under it's outstanding 30 TRILLION debt, it's HUGE housing bubble, and it's tech companies valued sometimes at 250x their earnings.
Buckle up buddies, and be ready to short the suckers.


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 21:24    Post subject:
Just a matter of time.

Again; We're sitting at 1-2% oversupply and rig counts in the US are dropping fast. People also keep claiming shale is a game changer, but what they don't account for is that shale rigs only produce for about the first year of operation and then drop off to almost nothing. It won't be much longer until we are sitting with undersupply. I believe this is why Saudi Arabia is not cutting. They are smart enough to realize that if they maintain max output the situation will correct itself anyways and we'll be under supplied even w/ OPEC nations at max output.

Whatever US producers survive this will be worth a fortune when oil comes back. When you look at the value of EXXI's proven reserves and their cost to operate they are a $70-80 a share company at $100 oil; Potentially more since they'll have almost no debt left. They were largely undervalued even a couple years back w/ the debt. Similar companies were trading at least twice what EXXI was trading at.

And I agree we're about to go through or already are in another recession. Historically the economy always lags behind what happens to oil. Oil drops and then raises fast, and around the time of oil skyrocketing back up is when the economy is hit hard as everyone was operating off the cheaper prices.
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HubU
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Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Tue, 9th Feb 2016 23:46    Post subject:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-exclusive-idUSKCN0VE21S


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Wed, 10th Feb 2016 00:58    Post subject:
I'd like to point out that Iran now being 'allowed' to sell oil doesn't mean that there is more oil supply now. It only means Iran is making more money because they aren't having to sell their oil under the table.
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vitupuuks




Posts: 26

PostPosted: Wed, 10th Feb 2016 08:36    Post subject:
Sentiment on the markets all over the world has been negative for a couple of weeks. EXXI doesn't move in correlation with crude oil lately - which to me is a bad sign. When theres a spike in crude, EXXI should rise too.
Seems like investors are very cautious about the toxic stuff especially in energy sector. Just lol @ CHK aswell. Going to buy EXXI for 30 cents next week.
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HubU
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Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Wed, 10th Feb 2016 15:40    Post subject:
Mchart wrote:
J
Again; We're sitting at 1-2% oversupply


Which is enough, it seems, to fill the available stockage capacity to the brim. They will have to force production down, or buy a lot of buckets Laughing


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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kazuma_kiryu




Posts: 152
Location: Japan (日本); South Africa.
PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 01:15    Post subject:
http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/oil-investing/gold-oil-ratio-at-record-high/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/gold-holds-near-1-200-as-investors-look-to-fed-stocks-for-cues


March and April, Oil and Gold will go up, but again another down before the real crises.

Buy Oil gain profit, then buy Gold and stock it for the next bad days.


Last edited by kazuma_kiryu on Thu, 11th Feb 2016 18:37; edited 1 time in total
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vitupuuks




Posts: 26

PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 09:50    Post subject:
Don't you just love it when a plan comes together? WTI now under 27 dollars

EXXI will go below 40 cents so fast you just cant even believe your eyes
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farne




Posts: 3730

PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 12:29    Post subject:
To think I didn't DWTI when it was at 33.3 bux
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HubU
VIP Member



Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 13:37    Post subject:
vitupuuks wrote:
Don't you just love it when a plan comes together? WTI now under 27 dollars

EXXI will go below 40 cents so fast you just cant even believe your eyes


That stock will go very low, then triple/quadruple in value in a few days. 300% return, no sweat. Loooooking good Cool

EDIT:


I see a bad moon rising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Il_Padrino




Posts: 7501
Location: Greece by the North Sea
PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 14:23    Post subject:
Gold is peaking today Surprised


There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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HubU
VIP Member



Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Thu, 11th Feb 2016 14:29    Post subject:
Il_Padrino wrote:
Gold is peaking today Surprised


I tried to convince my mom to buy gold in mid december by selling her mutual fond crap before maturity and she didn't want to do it, because we scheduled a meeting at the bank, where a self-serving asshat managed to convince her of the opposite. "OUR CDO'S ARE STRONG", haha, yeah, right.
A shame, she would have had a 25% return by now, and let's not talk about the coming months.
When gold goes up, bad news bears for the economy.


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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vitupuuks




Posts: 26

PostPosted: Fri, 12th Feb 2016 10:52    Post subject:
Some depressed dude is 40k+ in the red. Damn, must feel like shit





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HubU
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Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Fri, 12th Feb 2016 15:18    Post subject:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/the-oil-industry-got-together-and-agreed-things-may-never-get-better


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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HubU
VIP Member



Posts: 11325

PostPosted: Fri, 12th Feb 2016 17:10    Post subject:
+8.89% oil rebound
Oil rose the most in three weeks as equities rebounded and an OPEC reiterated its willingness to engage with other producers. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index, which measures expectations of price swings, climbed to the highest level in seven years Thursday. Producers are ready to work together and won’t make cuts unless there is complete cooperation, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said on a Sky News Arabia report posted online Feb. 10.

EDIT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cushing-crude-oil-stocks-113222085.html


"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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Mchart




Posts: 7314

PostPosted: Fri, 12th Feb 2016 19:59    Post subject:
vitupuuks wrote:
Some depressed dude is 40k+ in the red. Damn, must feel like shit







That's a good option, he'll be up just fine by 2017.
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farne




Posts: 3730

PostPosted: Sat, 13th Feb 2016 18:22    Post subject:
Think we might see a price spike soon, Turkey is concentrating forces on the Syrian border, and the Saudis are doing the same, if they invade, I'm sure they'll lose badly and as such the Saudis will have to cave in on production cuts to make up for their lost equipment. Highly speculative, of course, but we'll see soon!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-13/turkey-says-massive-escalation-syria-imminent-saudis-set-launch-airstrikes

Some info.
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