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 Posted: Wed, 20th Jan 2016 18:44 Post subject: |
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I still think this is a good one, but the fear is definitely there. Nothing has changed. They are still sound to the end of this year.
Anyways, DNR isn't a bad choice. Highly leveraged and has little to no risk financially. Bottom line is no one expected oil to drop this much. Anything you buy now may be down short term.
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HubU
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 01:33 Post subject: |
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Im hoping this rapid drop speeds up recovery, how the hell did CRK gain 30%? Im gonna avg down tonight.
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 02:06 Post subject: |
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| AmpegV4 wrote: | | Im hoping this rapid drop speeds up recovery, how the hell did CRK gain 30%? Im gonna avg down tonight. |
A lot of them went up because of the contracts expiring today. There was some heavy buying action today because the March contracts were/are higher then the now super shitty feb contracts which don't matter anymore. Looks like march contracts are still rising so i'm thinking tomorrow will also be a good day for a lot of them.
IMO EXXI is way oversold and we've witnessed major capitulation event the past few days of trading.
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whited
Posts: 347
Location: Close to New Center of Evil
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couleur
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 09:57 Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Register for FREE to finish reading this article
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"Enlightenment is man's emergence from his self-imposed nonage. Nonage is the inability to use one's own understanding without another's guidance. This nonage is self-imposed if its cause lies not in lack of understanding but in indecision and lack of courage to use one's own mind without another's guidance. Dare to know! (Sapere aude.) "Have the courage to use your own understanding," is therefore the motto of the enlightenment."
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whited
Posts: 347
Location: Close to New Center of Evil
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couleur
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whited
Posts: 347
Location: Close to New Center of Evil
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Il_Padrino
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Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 17:10 Post subject: |
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Idiotic article and filled with incorrect information.
The barrels they put oil in cost $90 alone.
Yes, they must scoop it up in wooden buckets w/ DDLewis
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 18:34 Post subject: |
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I think everyone is counting on 300-500K barrels from Iran for 2016 and 2017. I doubt they have the technical and logistic capability to rocket to 1M+ very fast. The good thing about small time companies going under is the drop in oil, so we might see a rise in price once the small timers go down and the economy (maybe) starts to pick up due to low oil price. Question is, will something like EXXI survive this massacre? Are their any reports due in short term about their viability?
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HubU
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| Posted: Thu, 21st Jan 2016 21:45 Post subject: |
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| Mister_s wrote: | | I think everyone is counting on 300-500K barrels from Iran for 2016 and 2017. I doubt they have the technical and logistic capability to rocket to 1M+ very fast. The good thing about small time companies going under is the drop in oil, so we might see a rise in price once the small timers go down and the economy (maybe) starts to pick up due to low oil price. Question is, will something like EXXI survive this massacre? Are their any reports due in short term about their viability? |
If you'd read the information I posted I've detailed why they are able to survive. While they have debt it is mostly unsecured debt and the holder of that debt (Franklin Investments) is working with EXXI to swap it to secured. They are not pushing for a BK because a BK would mean they would outright loose billions as the debt is not secured currently.
EXXI also holds a shitload of land and their cost to produce is very low compared to others. They break even at high $30 a barrel.
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whited
Posts: 347
Location: Close to New Center of Evil
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 09:07 Post subject: |
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Saudis wants to kill competition incl. shale gas/oil in US, by pumping hell lot more and thus decreasing price level, US tries to support industry by allowing exports, Saudi and other Arab states cost of producing oil is many times lower than US, what can happen if prices stay 20ish - small US oil companies go bust
If you are investing in some company, it is wise to read annual report 
| Code: | | Our acquisitions have been primarily oil-focused at an average reserve acquisition cost of approximately $21.35 per barrel of oil equivalent (‘‘BOE’’) and have provided us access to 742,197 net acres, ownership in 258 blocks, existing infrastructure to facilitate our growth and 16,766 square miles of 3D seismic data. |
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/EXXI/1385720836x0x860702/B8827E0B-B058-477A-8FAC-31388C83D5D0/EXXI_-_2015_Annual_Report.pdf
As I understand it means that they have paid 21.35$ for BOE underground, so if cost for Iran e.g. BOE is 1$ then we can see some difference here, and if Arabs want to increase market share and squeeze out competition , they can easily for next 5 years keep oil price level at level that it is breakeven for them but negative for US and other second tier oil producer country companies
Further read on oil/gas reserves and their changes in US for last 4-5 years:
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2015/$FILE/EY-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2015.pdf
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7498
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 10:44 Post subject: |
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Oil seems to be recuperating, +3$ in 2 days, and around 31$ again.
And EXXI +50% of course, god damn it.
This is always the most difficult moment; jump now or wait some more?
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 14:09 Post subject: |
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| whited wrote: | Saudis wants to kill competition incl. shale gas/oil in US, by pumping hell lot more and thus decreasing price level, US tries to support industry by allowing exports, Saudi and other Arab states cost of producing oil is many times lower than US, what can happen if prices stay 20ish - small US oil companies go bust
If you are investing in some company, it is wise to read annual report
| Code: | | Our acquisitions have been primarily oil-focused at an average reserve acquisition cost of approximately $21.35 per barrel of oil equivalent (‘‘BOE’’) and have provided us access to 742,197 net acres, ownership in 258 blocks, existing infrastructure to facilitate our growth and 16,766 square miles of 3D seismic data. |
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/EXXI/1385720836x0x860702/B8827E0B-B058-477A-8FAC-31388C83D5D0/EXXI_-_2015_Annual_Report.pdf
As I understand it means that they have paid 21.35$ for BOE underground, so if cost for Iran e.g. BOE is 1$ then we can see some difference here, and if Arabs want to increase market share and squeeze out competition , they can easily for next 5 years keep oil price level at level that it is breakeven for them but negative for US and other second tier oil producer country companies
Further read on oil/gas reserves and their changes in US for last 4-5 years:
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2015/$FILE/EY-us-oil-and-gas-reserves-study-2015.pdf |
Your assessment does not account for debt and other expenses.
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 14:11 Post subject: |
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| Il_Padrino wrote: | Oil seems to be recuperating, +3$ in 2 days, and around 31$ again.
And EXXI +50% of course, god damn it.
This is always the most difficult moment; jump now or wait some more? |
EXXI moves like a 3x ETN. If you think oil is going up the answer is simple.
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HubU
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Il_Padrino
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Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 17:47 Post subject: |
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I'm monitoring oil price daily for the past 4 months now. I'm gonna stick with my plan to wait until after the OPEC meeting in February to decide.
But if oil keeps going up, I might take the risk and buy for a low amount before that.
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 18:01 Post subject: |
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By the time you decide to take the risk you'll have missed out on likely 200% worth of gains.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7498
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 18:08 Post subject: |
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We'll see. This could just be a temporary rebounce and next week we might end up at 20$/barrel.
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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| Posted: Fri, 22nd Jan 2016 18:22 Post subject: |
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Next week we could be at 40 a barrel. Nothing changed fundamentally between 40 and 28 besides fear.
I also wouldn't bet against the golden Jew.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7498
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Mon, 25th Jan 2016 12:14 Post subject: |
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The sentiment here is that exxi is in danger but still quite healthy to get through this year. Looking at how the stock reacts according to the slightest of changes in oil price, it seems very dependent on macro economic.
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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HubU
VIP Member
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| Posted: Mon, 25th Jan 2016 13:05 Post subject: |
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My advice is to buy EXXI when oil is around 20$. Even if it stays long enough under 30$ for EXXI to go BK (which it won't), the fluctuation itself means that you'll have two -30% days, then two +30% days, etc... Still a lot of cash to be made.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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