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 Posted: Thu, 13th Aug 2015 17:29 Post subject: |
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Look at my prior post, I'm a fundamentals guy. It's not just random guessing or throwing the dice. Sure, there is always risk but Exxi with 2b cash in hand, their shallow water properties, and the fact that they are carrying unsecured debt. (Unsecured debt is a good thing as it means the banks that leant them the money have no legal means to get that money back if Exxi goes bankrupt. This means they will be more willing to continue floating the company if oil doesn't go above $58 /barrel in two years) but they have 2b cash on hand so they can burn cash for 2 years at current prices.
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| Posted: Fri, 14th Aug 2015 02:27 Post subject: |
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Edit: let me clean that up
Definitely some big opportunities in oil looking at the charts, I like the look of EXXI. What are your thoughts on the Iran sanctions and oil price rumours, some sources suggesting a potential $10 a barrel drop once Iran starts flooding the market.
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| Posted: Fri, 14th Aug 2015 06:23 Post subject: |
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| AmpegV4 wrote: | Edit: let me clean that up
Definitely some big opportunities in oil looking at the charts, I like the look of EXXI. What are your thoughts on the Iran sanctions and oil price rumours, some sources suggesting a potential $10 a barrel drop once Iran starts flooding the market. |
Already commented on this - The current price already factors in the fear of Iran.
Further, the actual additional supply from Iran won't happen for at least a couple years because that is how long it takes to re-direct supply chains and for them to change the infrastructure around.
Finally, they will only be able to output 500k bpd as a reasonable estimate. 500k BPD is nothing considering each year until 2030 we will have an additional 5 million BPD or so of a deficit.
Only increasingly complex and expensive technologies will allow us to make up that for that 62 million BPD gap by 2030, and this means more expensive oil.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7543
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Mon, 24th Aug 2015 05:35 Post subject: |
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Not expecting much until October. I've been averaging down, but frankly any purchase made under $2.00 is pretty damn good.
About to go under $40 a barrel. When oil pops back up the pop will be insane given how low it's going.
Either way if you hold long I feel it'll be fine. There is no way we can sit at $40 / barrel for over a year. Supply is going down week by week due to rigs being shut off, and demand is ever increasing.
To see how fast oil prices can spike see the crash in the 80s. When OPEC announced they were cutting supply back the price basically doubled in a day.
The toughest part is finding the true bottom, but like I said at these prices even if you don't find the actual bottom you'll still make a shitload when prices inevitably spike back. Waiting for bottom is a fools game, because by the time you can declare bottom the rush back up already happened and you've missed the window.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-says-opec-emergency-meeting-123331321.html
Just remember - All the OPEC nations are currently operating at a loss and are having tough times supporting their social programs because of this price drop. When OPEC decides to cut the reversal will be incredibly fast. Hopefully OPEC/West decides that they've fucked Russia enough with these low prices.
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| Posted: Thu, 27th Aug 2015 16:51 Post subject: |
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Back over 40, rest of this week is going to be interesting. If It holds over 40 for the rest of the week the resistance is over.
Still matching the 2009 timeline quite well.
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StarSpeak
Posts: 423
Location: Fascism's Paradise
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| Posted: Tue, 1st Sep 2015 17:00 Post subject: |
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Unless you're going to really involve yourself in learning about markets, this is the best thing to know:
| Mchart wrote: | And this is the key to trading that many don't understand. You don't invest in bubbles. You don't invest when everyone else is buying. You buy the panic. You buy when everyone else has sold/selling. Buying the fear is how you make great gains. You're buying after the bubble has already burst.
Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying. The simplest piece of advice that people do not understand because they let emotion drive their investments. |
I would add to also have a time-frame in mind (day,short-term, longer-term, etc) and point of failure (price area that if traded at invalidates your thesis) for any trade you initiate.
I day-trade full time now, but getting here has taken a lot of time and money. And I can tell you that the above advice works even on an intra-day timeframe. Many, many of my great trades started with what felt like a terrifying tidal wave of selling running right through my limit-buy order. Not two minutes later - total reversal, and all those emotional price-action based traders were in the red, as my position gained. Why? Because, like the above advice - I do my absolute best to not trade on emotion.
How? I write about it from time to time on my blog.. since you seem intrigued in markets, check it out here
piracy isn't a hobby, it's a way of life
Last edited by StarSpeak on Mon, 26th Oct 2015 17:00; edited 2 times in total
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| Posted: Tue, 1st Sep 2015 20:07 Post subject: |
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I'll take a look at your blog, thanks.
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| Posted: Wed, 2nd Sep 2015 03:10 Post subject: |
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Anyone who would have listened to me when I first posted about that group of stocks like EXXI, GDP, GST, etc earlier in this thread could have made an easy 30-40% over the course of three days. I bought a bunch on top of my previous longs when I posted earlier, saw the 3 candle, and sold before the losses today. Made a solid amount of money. Still holding a bunch long term but when you see a 3 candle that's a good sign to sell any shorter term money.
Anyone looking to learn FYI should really read through this website and keep it bookmarked -
http://thepatternsite.com/
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spankie
VIP Member
Posts: 2958
Location: Belgium
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| Posted: Tue, 8th Sep 2015 14:27 Post subject: |
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| dingo_d wrote: | spankie was (is?) in the stock market business, I'm sure he'll now the most about it  |
Well, I did study financial market stuff and I am certified and I do make a lot of money in the markets, but I only do it as a side project.
The most important thing is that you need to be comfortable and you need to be able to live with your decisions. It's all mental!
It's quite easy to give some advice.
1) If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen. If you are not comfortable with the ups and downs, dont get into stocks. Nobody cares whether your stock goes up or down and nobody cares for your whining. You are on your own
2) Take your losses and wins with pride. Dont whine and dont brag.
3) You cant choose your return, but you can choose your risk level. Adapt your investment strategy to it. If you cant sleep after you bought 10k options with a short strike, dont do it. Nobody will judge you, it's your money, you do with it what you want.
4) Do mental pre-processing. Assess what you will do when certain stuff happens in advance. Make strategies in advance, not when the shit hits the fan when you are under time or other pressures.
5) Eat like an elephant and shit like a mouse. Don't sell profits after 1 day and let losses accumulate over years.
6) Avoid big gambles or stupid investments. Do not invest in 50/50 flips. Invest in asymetric risk patterns. e.g. 10% of going bankrupt, 90% of doubling is a good risk pattern. Accept volatility and accept life of odds.
7) Diversify. Do not go bankrupt yourself because you hit the 10% chance as explained in #6. Sacrifice some return to build in some security
 Do not fall in love with your investment, sell some to take some profit. Predetermine your selling point (whatever it is, rationalise it upfront)
9) Avoid emotional stuff
10) Do not feel bad if you take a loss, it's the nature of the game
11) Do not accept 'tips' from friends or strangers. If it's free money, they would take and be quiet.
12) Rebalance or reassess your portfolio once in a while. A stock rarely is a good position for 20 years. Trim huge profit positions as these might overexpose you to tail risk in your portfolio
13) Dont look back after you sell. You never sell at the all time high, but thats no problem. Your reinvestment will also generate return. Also, never blame yourself afterwards if you didnt buy. Live with it!
14) Always wonder why you would have a different view than the market. A stock is very rarely undervalued without a reason and you are very rarely you are the only one to see it. Always try to figure out why your view is different (there are often good reasons, but you should think about it). Very often it boils down to a risk pattern which is acceptable for you and not for others or there are technical issues like a hedge fund needing to sell due to liquidity constraints or country specific tax issues etc. Sometimes there is free money for some people!
15) Follow the news and go for long term macro trends.
16) Again, do not bet on short term miracles, they almost never happen and you certainly wont make money in a consistent way
17) Specialise in certain sectors. Buy what you know, accumulate information
My situation is different than MrChart. I get taxed to death @ 57% of income, but I do have a lot of savings money. Profits in the markets are not taxed, but dividends are taxed at 27%, buying/selling exposes me to 0.5% transaction tax, and short term profits <6m are taxed at 27%. So it is difficult to do a lot of short term trading. So I go for long term macro trends in distressed companies (buy commodity companies now!), companies with distressed major shareholders (major shareholders needing to sell or holding with bad structures etc.) and biotech, since I have a lot of experience in that sector since I work in it.
I used to do some swing trading in the past, but that was when I had a lot of time and when taxes were absent or lower. Now it is basically impossible.
I recently did sell some of my positions to pay for the equity share of my apartment. Sold positions which had quadrupled or x6 since 2010-2011. So that's not that bad of a return on a yearly basis... Furthermore, I took quite a big mortgage at ~ 2%, as I am convinced I can make a bigger return than that 2%, so free money for me. I have a > 100k portfolio at the moment and a 150k mortgage, so basically i am debt free. I have to protect my savings
And MrChart is right, you should try to aim to get return of at least 6-7-8-9% per year. It's possible, but it takes time and effort. Don't go for the lazy solution where you dont have to take a decision for a long time and settle for a 2-3% return...
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| Posted: Sun, 20th Sep 2015 18:13 Post subject: |
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I didn't see the most important one, it's the same as with gambling:
do not invest money, you aren't prepared to loose
| Lutzifer wrote: | | and yes, mine is only average |
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| Posted: Wed, 7th Oct 2015 03:34 Post subject: |
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Hope you held your $exxi ampeg.
Still holding to $10. Have 10k shares for a break even average of $1.80 currently for 1+ year. Already doubled my money in five days on my short term plays.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7543
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Mon, 12th Oct 2015 05:17 Post subject: |
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What are your thoughts for next week mchart? I'd like to load up more if this thing dips again lots of positive news around oil at the moment and vladamir looks to be shaking things up.
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| Posted: Mon, 12th Oct 2015 20:08 Post subject: |
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No clue, I knew it would go down but was not expecting the drop today.
I'm long either way as fundamentally exxi is doing the right things and will come out stronger once oil stays above $50 a barrel. EnergyXXI will reach new all time highs if/when oil hits $100 a barrel.
See - http://seekingalpha.com/article/3553516-taking-a-look-at-energy-xxi-a-study-in-effective-crisis-management
If you're looking long term, again, any price under $2 is a good purchase. Shorter term / swing this could easily hit low again if oil doesn't hold up.
Just know though that you don't want to wait too long as when they announce the debt swap the price will skyrocket. The reality is that we might see another dip this week and it'll work in EnergyXXI's favour as this will cheapen up their bonds for continued buybacks.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7543
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Sun, 6th Dec 2015 11:14 Post subject: |
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So, no changes in production after the OPEC meeting, with Iran even announcing to produce more. Seems there's still no bottom in oil price.
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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| Posted: Sun, 6th Dec 2015 19:38 Post subject: |
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| Il_Padrino wrote: | | So, no changes in production after the OPEC meeting, with Iran even announcing to produce more. Seems there's still no bottom in oil price. |
Given that we stuck at 40 even after that announcement I disagree. I think 40 or around it is bottom personally. Rig counts are still declining and production numbers are still declining. Any company that survives will be in great position.
Due to all the management exxi has been doing their break even cost is now high $30 a barrel. They haven't even announced the debt swap deal yet, and they continue to buy back their bonds for pennies on the dollar. Fundamentally nothing has changed except for the fact that most of these companies are paying less interest on debt since they are buying the debt back for cheap.
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| Posted: Sun, 6th Dec 2015 23:14 Post subject: |
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I hope we don't need to count on opec cutting production for oil prices to turn around. I just can't see them cutting production in the face of competition. Doesn't make sense Russia and America can pump away no restrictions but we expect SA and Opec to limit output so competitors benefit.
started to stress on crk, exxi hoping we see some upside soon
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| Posted: Mon, 7th Dec 2015 00:50 Post subject: |
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Well, for $100+ we are. I'm betting next meeting in June they'll cut, but that's just a guess like anything else. They can't keep supplying like they are without serious consequences. They've already had their credit downgraded and are having funding issues for social programs.
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| Posted: Mon, 7th Dec 2015 23:25 Post subject: |
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Ugly day. Low volume and big drop which means mostly panic selling from retail traders. Still holding, stick to the plan and fundamentals. Nothing has changed here, it's all panic.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7543
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Tue, 8th Dec 2015 14:47 Post subject: |
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Oil is under 37$ now... It seems the Saoudi's are going all-in with this gamble.
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| Posted: Tue, 8th Dec 2015 16:32 Post subject: |
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Bad gamble IMO. This is only helping these US producers. EXXI just paid off 5 mil of debt for $800k. They keep cutting debt for pennies on the dollar. This means when oil eventually rebounds (which it will) they'll be even better off. I just don't see it possible that OPEC can keep prices down for another year. US production numbers and rig counts keep falling as well. When oil pops up it'll be massive IMO like 2009. Oil being low for over a year is greatly increasing demand from consumers as well.
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| Posted: Tue, 8th Dec 2015 17:32 Post subject: |
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dont overstate the demand, pirce change at the fuel pumps is barely 5% , due all the extra taxes ... 50% drop on oil barrel price means shit for actual consumers
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| Posted: Tue, 8th Dec 2015 17:50 Post subject: |
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Fuel is at least 60 cents cheaper per gallon compared to a year ago where I live, and that's on an island in the Pacific Ocean.
Not speaking just of gas costs though. Majority of crude isn't even used for fuel. Demand is ever increasing, and the reality is that supply is lowering compared to half a year ago as US production numbers have been falling since this summer.
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HubU
VIP Member
Posts: 11352
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| Posted: Tue, 15th Dec 2015 16:18 Post subject: |
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Let's just see if the iranian oil embargo is lifted in february. From what I gathered, the prices might still fall below 30$/barrel, so an E&P like EXXI could drop under 1$ a share in the coming month. If it nears that point, I'll consider buying a massive amount of it.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Wed, 16th Dec 2015 06:37 Post subject: |
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It could drop to 90 cents again but I wouldn't take the chance for a long position.
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dsergei
Posts: 4051
Location: Moscow, Russia
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| Posted: Wed, 16th Dec 2015 08:58 Post subject: |
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US oil export ban lifted as well it seems.
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All times are GMT + 1 Hour |
I still feel it hasn't hit bottom. Any further thoughts on the next couple of months of oil mchart?
