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 Posted: Fri, 3rd Apr 2015 21:30 Post subject: SteamSpy - Let's "spy" Steam's sales |
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For those that haven't been paying attention  Ars Technica were the first (and only) to devise an algorithm through which they could estimate sales of games on Steam "fairly" accurately based on publicly available data from Steam profiles: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/introducing-steam-gauge-ars-reveals-steams-most-popular-games/
But isn't it just guessing? Well.. no. It's based on the same principles that make it possible for the exit polls to predict the end results with great accuracy. Then again.. not quite. There are some caveats that you can read about in the above link.
Anyway, looks like someone went the extra mile and created a constantly updated database of every single game on Steam and with an estimate of how off the numbers might be.
There are reports from indie Steam developers that the estimates are surprisingly close to the actual sales data. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1022509
tl;dr http://steamspy.com/
Some examples:
Dark Souls: Owners: 1,826,117 ± 77,014
Dark Souls II: Owners: 970,231 ± 56,242
Deus Ex: HR (non DC): Owners: 2,108,568 ± 82,704
Alan Wake: Owners: 1,530,866 ± 70,560
Remember Me: Owners: 273,918 ± 29,930
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TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
Last edited by consolitis on Sat, 4th Apr 2015 11:39; edited 2 times in total
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harry_theone
Posts: 11201
Location: The Land of Thread Reports
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| Posted: Fri, 3rd Apr 2015 21:44 Post subject: |
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Aliens: Colonial Marines: Owners: 226,985 ± 27,248
Alien: Isolation: Owners: 424,956 ± 37,267
 Take dat Gearbox
Oh wait..
Borderlands 2: Owners: 4,814,464 ± 124,217
This is where the Aliens budget went and they made it back and more. 
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
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harry_theone
Posts: 11201
Location: The Land of Thread Reports
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| Posted: Fri, 3rd Apr 2015 21:54 Post subject: |
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To be fair, before they started milking it (Headhunter DLCs), BL2 was a masterpiece and so much fun.
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| Posted: Fri, 3rd Apr 2015 22:12 Post subject: |
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It was terrible on PS3. When I was playing with 3 other guys online, the FPS drop was so bad that the game was unplayable at some locations...
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prudislav
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Location: The land of beer and porn
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| Posted: Fri, 3rd Apr 2015 22:12 Post subject: |
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Really nice Dark Souls numbers
other interesting numbers:
Divinity: OS -> 805,539 ± 51,266
Wasteland 2 -> 417,276 ± 36,929
Shadorun Returns -> 766,287 ± 50,005
Shadowrun Dragonfall -> 336,210 ± 33,154
GTA IV -> 3,442,316 ± 105,358
Total War: ROME II -> 2,223,767 ± 84,911
Valkyria Chronicles -> 285,011 ± 30,529
Mortal Kombat -> 804,686 ± 51,239
RYSE -> 153,599 ± 22,418
State of Decay -> 991,565 ± 56,855
Cities Skylines -> 866,979 ± 53,178
Cities XXL -> 38,400 ± 11,212
Child of Light -> 287,571 ± 30,665
South Park SoT -> 1,042,764 ± 58,297
Far Cry Blood Dragon -> 1,036,791 ± 58,131
This War of Mine -> 392,530 ± 35,819
Transistor -> 569,168 ± 43,115
BTW: so if i understood it correctly it summarize data from all public steam profiles
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 10:58 Post subject: |
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Where do you see that? According to Ars Technica there are ~172M Steam Community pages/users, of which only 6% have bothered to change their profile to private, and thus they can be more or less safely ignored.
| Quote: | | Currently, the range of valid Steam Community IDs extends to include about 172 million pages (with some small gaps of invalid IDs occasionally popping up in the middle). |
| Quote: | | In any case, players that have actively set their profile to “private” account for only about six percent of all pages we try to randomly sample. |
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
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prudislav
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Location: The land of beer and porn
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 11:12 Post subject: |
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well the CoD numbers are just sad 
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 11:23 Post subject: |
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This is why I don't use steam. Fuck you, you don't get no data from me, corporate swine!
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 11:57 Post subject: |
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that's pretty cool 
1) Lenovo Legion 7 (AMD Ryzen 7 5800H, RTX 3080 16Gb, 32Gb DDR4, SSD 1TB +2TB
2) SFFPC (streaming via Moonlight+ Sunshine)
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xExtreme
Posts: 5811
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 12:07 Post subject: |
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This is actually really cool, I love seeing things like this though it does also kind of prove just HOW niche some games really are... and is even more evidence of why PC is treated with such disdain by devs. Valkyria only sold (roughly) 250k copies? Wasteland 2 was around 420k? And how many of those got free Steam keys from backing the KS? How many are actual sales? When game sales are so low (unless they're uber-AAA games like GTA or MK etc) why bother?
Bleak figures are bleak.
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harry_theone
Posts: 11201
Location: The Land of Thread Reports
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 12:53 Post subject: |
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| sabin1981 wrote: | This is actually really cool, I love seeing things like this though it does also kind of prove just HOW niche some games really are... and is even more evidence of why PC is treated with such disdain by devs. Valkyria only sold (roughly) 250k copies? Wasteland 2 was around 420k? And how many of those got free Steam keys from backing the KS? How many are actual sales? When game sales are so low (unless they're uber-AAA games like GTA or MK etc) why bother?
Bleak figures are bleak. |
These are niche and lower budgeted games. I don't think their sales are that bad.
BioShock Infinite: Owners: 3,322,916 ± 98,528
This sold way more than I expected.
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
Last edited by consolitis on Sat, 4th Apr 2015 12:56; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 12:59 Post subject: |
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As far as I understand it's even bigger number for non Steam exclusives (Ubisoft productions etc)
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LeoNatan
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 12:59 Post subject: |
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Grand Theft Auto V: Owners: 151,778,918 ± 3,229,930  #pcmasterrace
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prudislav
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 13:02 Post subject: |
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Sabin: i dont really think those VC salec are bad , pretty much the oposite - for a niche genre with anime visuals. Those numbers cant really be compared with AAA games with millions spent on marketing. From what vgcharts says VC sold 300k copies on ps3 in first year so 250k on steam since release is quite good a reaction from sega confirms it. For some devs even 100k copies is huge success but for AAA success number is way higher.
Look for FF XIII - it has 300k and 200k for sequel which are imo hreat numbers after such short time for a lazy ports of genetaly perceived one pf worse titles in console-centric series
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 13:04 Post subject: |
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I guess they just seem really low to me, a couple hundred thousand copies? I don't know, perhaps I just expected more.
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 13:05 Post subject: |
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| sabin1981 wrote: | Aye, like I said; uber-AAA games. They sell very well, with console-style numbers in the multiple million. I did say niche games, mate  |
I know you said that but I don't think these sales are that "low". I'm sure the expectations and budgets were low as well.
(In case there was a misunderstanding my comment about BS:I was entirely separate.)
edit: already covered by prudislav
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY |
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 13:21 Post subject: |
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Some games I checked:
| Quote: | The Evil Within: Owners: 253,469 ± 27,398
It's a shame they sabotaged the success of their own game. If they hadn't talked bullshit about how you need 4GB VRAM  and released it with menu options to play with 16:9 aspect ratio and 60 fps day 1 instead of later with a patch it would have sold better. (It's also a good game!) |
| Quote: | Lost Planet 3: Owners: 95,824 ± 16,851
This was sent to die on all platforms  |
| Quote: | Life Is Strange™: Owners: 221,785 ± 25,630
It's doing pretty good, already almost sold as many copies as Remember Me (mega bomba) in its lifetime sales and there are still more episodes to come. |
| Quote: | Duke Nukem Forever: Owners: 716,359 ± 46,012
No comment. |
| Quote: | XCOM: Enemy Unknown: Owners: 2,632,059 ± 87,825
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified: Owners: 867,049 ± 50,604
Vindicated  (also The Bureau was in a humble bundle available for $1). |
| Quote: | Batman: Arkham Asylum GOTY Edition: Owners: 2,056,344 ± 77,727
Batman: Arkham City GOTY: Owners: 2,353,088 ± 83,092
Batman™: Arkham Origins: Owners: 1,285,891 ± 61,570
All things considered (lower budget due to copy pasting and weak reviews) Origins still sold well enough. |
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
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proekaan
VIP Member
Posts: 3650
Location: Finland
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 13:48 Post subject: |
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Raven's Cry : Owners: 3,864 ± 3,384
Oh man,that's harsh. I would have finished it,but ran in to a game breaking bug and couldn't continue. Maybe they will patch it. 
Mars: War Logs: Owners: 125,189 ± 19,260
It sold better than I expected,but then again the price was pretty low. And it was also on sale for 5$ during steam sale iirc,so...
Bound By Flame: Owners: 53,321 ± 12,571
Sad. I know the price was higher and people didn't like it as much as Mars,but I would have liked it to sell more.
The Book of Unwritten Tales: Owners: 187,011 ± 23,537
The Book of Unwritten Tales 2: Owners: 11,592 ± 5,862
Wow! Now that's just really REALLY sad.
But all in all a great site. Love the checking various budget titles...although being quite disappointed afterwards.
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 14:05 Post subject: |
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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158727832&postcount=329
| Quote: | Hi guys, Sergey Galyonkin here. Thanks for using SteamSpy and thanks for letting me it, I've been reading NeoGAF for years
I just want to clarify some things.
Effects of free weekends on owners data are worse than you'd think.
Steam works this way.
1. Game goes on free weekend.
2. Everyone online during the weekend get the game added to his account - it's around 25M users.
3. The promotion ends.
4. Only people that are currently online will get the game removed from their accounts.
Because of this free weekend might affect data for several months.
Check out Europa Universalis IV. It sold around 700K, but it shows 1.4M because of free weekend a full month ago!
There is no SteamGate
Guys that contacted me thought that Steam Spy shows Steam sales. It's not. It shows owners of the game on Steam and that particular game had a lot of retail sales and has been in at least one bundle.
Geo data is self-reported
If you have set a location in your profile - great, Steam Spy will use it. If you did not - also great, Steam Spy won't use it. But if you lied - we have a problem.
Fortunately people don't lie that often, but it still affects geo data on Steam Spy.
And, most importantly
Owners!=Sales
You could get a game in a bundle, as a gift or try it on free weekend and never log in.
Some technical data
I'm collecting roughly 150 profiles per minute, but because half of those are empty it gives me around 100K of valid open profiles per day. It turns to roughly 1M data points (games per user).
Today I've made some changes to algorithm and should be able to collect 150K user profiles. Or server will meltdown at midnight
I'm using a rolling sample for last three days, that's why data is a bit lagging.
Anything below 30K frankly isn't reliable - be it owners data or players data.
But on the other hand AppAnnie might be off by 200% to 700% and people still pay tens of thousands of dollars to access it. |
TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"
~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
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MannyK
Posts: 1405
Location: Brazil
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| Posted: Sat, 4th Apr 2015 17:19 Post subject: |
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Banished
Owners: 1,063,333 ± 56,016
Players in the last 2 weeks: 81,914 ± 15,581 (7.7%)
Players total: 989,920 ± 54,057 (93.1%)
1 million copies and only one guy developed it
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