Global Climate Change
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TSR69
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PostPosted: Sat, 8th Jan 2011 00:15    Post subject: Global Climate Change
Inspired by some stuff that came up in this thread:
http://www.nfohump.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=66101

I guess some people look at this winter and the last one and then subjectively say, "Global warming is a hoax." It's quite a bit more complicated, the short term effect for Europe and North America is warmer summers and colder winters. Still the overall average temperatures are on the rise. Here some imagery of the Arctic from a NASA satellite from 1979 onwards.



Source: http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/arcticice_decline.html

Each picture has been created from data gathered in September (around the 21th), that is the month with the least amount of ice. This more a visual impression and it doesn't really give a good exact measurement of the amount of Arctic ice.

More modern satellites map changes by measuring variations in gravity like both GRACE satellites:
http://science.nasa.gov/missions/grace/
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Satellites_Detect_Significant_Ice_Loss_In_Antarctica.html

Or ESA's Goce:
http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMH3NITYRF_UnitedKingdom_0.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/16/climate-change-oceans-satellite-esa
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moosenoodles




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PostPosted: Sat, 8th Jan 2011 00:55    Post subject:
those years all look pretty ok really, ups and downs a little but it always seems to not get any worse... Id iike to see the next 5 years now
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TSR69
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PostPosted: Sat, 8th Jan 2011 01:11    Post subject:
Unfortunately I couldn't find that. These agencies publish only part of their data online and don't update some articles.

More info here:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/archive.html



 Spoiler:
 


Last edited by TSR69 on Fri, 14th Jan 2011 16:56; edited 1 time in total
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Frant
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PostPosted: Sat, 8th Jan 2011 18:27    Post subject:
moosenoodles wrote:
those years all look pretty ok really, ups and downs a little but it always seems to not get any worse... Id iike to see the next 5 years now


Look at the outline of the 1979 polar cap and then compare ice cap with that outline as years pass by.


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TSR69
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PostPosted: Sat, 8th Jan 2011 19:11    Post subject:
I don't want to be accused of providing false info so: Very Happy

Quote:
Right animation: The minimum concentration of Arctic sea ice in 2005 occurred on September 21, 2005, when the sea ice extent dropped to 2.05 million sq. miles, the lowest extent yet recorded in the satellite record. The yellow line represents the average location of the ice edge of the perennial sea ice cover for the years 1979 through 2004. Click on image to view animation.
Credit: NASA

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/arcticice_decline.html
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inz




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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 05:13    Post subject:
It's just a political tool without unbiased basis on factual science,

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647#
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Frant
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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 05:22    Post subject:
inz wrote:
It's just a political tool without unbiased basis on factual science,

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647#


Oh, please, don't link to that silly channel 4 propaganda movie. Laughing

http://www.durangobill.com/Swindle_Swindle.html


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"The sky was the color of a TV tuned to a dead station" - Neuromancer
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inz




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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 05:31    Post subject:
Crap you weren't supposed to post that so fast Cool Face

Come on, those scientists have foreign accents, they must know what they're talking about!
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Frant
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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 07:11    Post subject:
excerpt:

Quote:
Controversial director Martin Durkin said: "You can see the problems with the science of global warming, but people just don't believe you - it's taken 10 years to get this commissioned."

"I think it will go down in history as the first chapter in a new era of the relationship between scientists and society. Legitimate scientists - people with qualifications - are the bad guys."

Is Martin Durkin trying to get us to believe that only movie directors understand science, and legitimate scientists don’t? Is Martin Durkin actually telling us that the real reason he made the movie was to promote his personal war against legitimate scientists? (And collect a few bucks from the “Don’t bother me with the facts - I’ve already made up my mind.” audience.)


Smug


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Rofl_Mao




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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 20:59    Post subject:
Frant wrote:
inz wrote:
It's just a political tool without unbiased basis on factual science,

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647#


Oh, please, don't link to that silly channel 4 propaganda movie. Laughing

http://www.durangobill.com/Swindle_Swindle.html


I think the main reason for the "common man" to deny global warming is just money and cars. Global warming is a long term phenomenon, while most people want to satisfy short term needs. Plus it's easy because you don't have to do anything. The common man however is not in charge, so (thankfully I think) most governments have had climate policies for many years.

It's true scientists haven't unanimously agreed on mankind being the cause of global warming, but the majority thinks it is. The impression I'm getting is that about 75% of science thinks mankind is the cause. So there might still be a chance that people haven't got anything to do with climate change. Which would actually be great because we could then fly in airplanes all we want and have barbecues every day.


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Atropa




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PostPosted: Sun, 9th Jan 2011 22:57    Post subject:
If it isn't mankind who are behind global warming, it would still be necessary to make precautions against the weather changes. Is CO2 really that polluting? Does it directly hurt us? If it doesn't I would rather use the money to secure some of the vulnerable places and see if the higher temperatures can be used for some neat stuff. I don't know maybe some new places to grow grain or something.
To me it seems like a lost cause to try and lower the CO2 levels enough for it to have any impact.
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TSR69
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PostPosted: Mon, 10th Jan 2011 14:59    Post subject:
Another argument to change our oil based economies is that we will run out of easy to "harvest" oil.

With the start of the Industrial Revolution humanity started significantly changing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas (like water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons), the changing of the atmosphere will have a significant impact on the global climate. Note that we in less than 300 years have made a bigger change to the atmosphere than the normal earthly processes (like volcanic activity) during eight hundred thousand years.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

Methods to measure that are for example examining air in Antarctic ice:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5314592.stm


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SycoShaman
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PostPosted: Tue, 11th Jan 2011 23:25    Post subject:
Haven't you heard, Global Warming is all a buncha bullshit according to US Republicans/Tea Party ppl.

Its all hocus pocus 'science mumbojumbo' Rolling Eyes

I mean, the world is only 6000 years old, duh Laughing

Seriously, how ppl can believe nonsense like that is baffling. I understand a leap of faith but fuck...to ignore hard science is fuckin ludacris.


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WaldoJ
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 05:46    Post subject:
hard science can also be falsified to support it self and gain more funds.

Global warming is legit...


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TSR69
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:10    Post subject:
WaldoJ you are on of those, it is impossible to have a discussion with since you're not willing to examine the material that is presented. You assume it is all falsified perhaps? You most likely live a bell of assumptions.


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SycoShaman
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:28    Post subject:
I have to agree with Icon

Global Warming is real. All you have to do is look at the weather.

Not to mention EVERY scientist agree's that GW is a fact.

Its not reverse but it will be soon if we take the right measures.

@Waldo

Something wrong man?


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Atropa




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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:30    Post subject:
SycoShaman wrote:

I mean, the world is only 6000 years old, duh Laughing

Seriously, how ppl can believe nonsense like that is baffling. I understand a leap of faith but fuck...to ignore hard science is fuckin ludacris.


What if you didn't know very much about the physics behind radioactive decay( quantum tunneling through the potential barrier, the differential equation for decays and so on)? You would still believe the earth is older than 6000 years because alot of people have told you that, even though you really havn't got any insight on where these assumptions come from. Basicly you believe what we tell you to.
Now what if you lived somewhere where there was group of wise men, who over many years have told "knowledgable" things? They often seem to be right( or they are traditionally right), then why wouldn't you believe them when they toldl you the earth is only 6000 years. It's not like you know anything about carbon-dating.
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Frant
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:33    Post subject:
Atropa wrote:
SycoShaman wrote:

I mean, the world is only 6000 years old, duh Laughing

Seriously, how ppl can believe nonsense like that is baffling. I understand a leap of faith but fuck...to ignore hard science is fuckin ludacris.


What if you didn't know very much about the physics behind radioactive decay( quantum tunneling through the potential barrier, the differential equation for decays and so on)? You would still believe the earth is older than 6000 years because alot of people have told you that, even though you really havn't got any insight on where these assumptions come from. Basicly you believe what we tell you to.
Now what if you lived somewhere where there was group of wise men, who over many years have told "knowledgable" things? They often seem to be right( or they are traditionally right), then why wouldn't you believe them when they toldl you the earth is only 6000 years. It's not like you know anything about carbon-dating.


There are thousands of other things that require just a very average intellect to realise the Earth is older than some religious nuts says. Dinosaurs anybody?

You don't need to be a nuclear physicist to laugh at delusional religious people.

atropa wrote:
Basicly you believe what we tell you to.

Only the meekest of the meek sheep. There's such a thing as rational thinking, common sense, critical thought, weighing different claims/facts against each other etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

Obviously you'd have a different starting point if this happened 2000 years ago, but it's not 2000 years ago. There is no excuse for people in the "enlightened" western world to believe the Earth is 6000 years old.


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Atropa




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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:46    Post subject:
Isn't dating dinosaur bones done with carbon-dating? So i'm just supposed to look at some bones and guess the age? Neutral.
weighing different claims against each other only work if you have some starting knowledge. If I've been a firm believer of 6000 years for all my life then i wont suddenly belive in 6 million years.

Edit: I agree if you have access to a nice school and generally have access to information, then you should really know better. However if you live in a place where a tight knot decides the information flow then you end up "stupid".
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Frant
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 19:55    Post subject:
Atropa wrote:
Isn't dating dinosaur bones done with carbon-dating? So i'm just supposed to look at some bones and guess the age? Neutral.
weighing different claims against each other only work if you have some starting knowledge. If I've been a firm believer of 6000 years for all my life then i wont suddenly belive in 6 million years.


Archaeology? Layers of sediment? Drilling polar ice caps?

You're pulling this argument to an absurd position though (for the sake of the argument I suppose): your example is based on the assumption that the person has no prior knowledge about science whatsoever and doesn't get any information from anybody or anything. Obviously that person can not carbon date dinosaur bones and can only draw very very basic conclusions like "these bones are very old".

In any case, you've basically proved that holding on to a belief based on faith is indeed a flawed way to form your opinions and knowledge.


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"The sky was the color of a TV tuned to a dead station" - Neuromancer
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Atropa




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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 20:11    Post subject:
The only way to gauge the age of the earth I personally know anything about is carbon-dating. So if i didn't know about that I would have to base my assumptions on the other things you mention for which I have no idea of how precise they are or what their limitations are. I would have to rely on people I think do good and sound science. But really I wouldn't have the slightest idea of wether somebody was just joking around with me.
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Frant
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 20:21    Post subject:
Existence of oil then. Through chemistry (not carbon dating) you come to the conclusion that it has taken hundreds of thousands of years for dead organic matter to transform into oil and natural gas. If you're not versed in chemistry: read several books and correlate information. If you don't have access to books, schools or knowledgeable people - herd your sheep.


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TSR69
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PostPosted: Wed, 12th Jan 2011 20:41    Post subject:
A funny note: Fen Montaigne explains how global warming affects Antarctic penguins and rising sea levels in the Colbert Report:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/370520/january-10-2011/fen-montaigne


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TSR69
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PostPosted: Fri, 14th Jan 2011 16:55    Post subject:
sea level rise explorer

Nice articles there as well, the description on the page in above link shows some figures of the potential sea rise. To be honest I actually feared more dramatic figures. It seems the Dutch have a millennium or so to evacuate. Very Happy


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WaldoJ
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PostPosted: Fri, 14th Jan 2011 17:20    Post subject:
Rational thought is one thing.
Rational thought based on evidence is another thing.
Rational thought based on what scientists tell you to get more money from you is yet another thing.

Global Warming is legit. Listening to the causes is bull shit though. According to science we're all to blame, when it's also true that animals that peta defends also cause CO2. The things environmentalists do also cause damage to the planet.

Aging of the earth is also lulz. You have christians who say they've created a fossil of pickle in a matter of months. You have Scientists who say the earth is millions upon millions of years old. You also have Scientists who say this and that. You have various religions aging the earth differently. None of it really matters.

Fact of the matter is... if we don't adapt we'll keep complaining. The winters are getting colder, summers are getting hotter. The core temp is increasing. And what do we do? Throw more money into science to find a cure. There is no cure. Planets die. We're on a dying planet. We're not killing it. Its just killing itself. We're only helping it die faster. And by we, i mean everyone. Even vegans, even those silly environmentalists, even religious nut jobs. By finding a way to make our lives more comfortable we're not adapting to the planet and every year we get OMFG SNOW IN JULY! NO WAY!

Give it 50 years and we'll still be in the same situation whining and cringing and complaining how we killed our children because the planet is going... fuck that. If we're not colonizing our solar system by 2070 then we are all fuck then.

Religion is keeping us on this planet. Simple as that. And with religion, whether or not you believe in it, we will all die.

Science is also keeping us on this planet. But that's more complicated. Religion is easier to blame since every 'rational thinker' hates religion. Science is causing so much shit on this planet its ridiculous. Fraudulent information is everywhere. It's a pyramid scheme. Want more money throw more science into it.

Real science is still out there and it's even more dangerous, but it's fucking amazing. Can't wait for humanity to finally become what it's been trying to become for the past 80 years. It actually will be far more awesome than this 'global warming' malarky that's been around since bank cheques were invented. It's been happening since day 0. But it's in the limelight for the past dozens of years. BLEH.



iconized, No. I analyze the information. And you can have a discussion with me. A legitimate discussion. But seriously, science nowadays is more money driven than anything else. There is real awesome science out there, and then there's government funded science with real scientists who are paid to give the information that people NEED to see be scared and worried and terrified.

Crying or Very sad Even those who believe they are not sheep, are also sheep.


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TSR69
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PostPosted: Sat, 15th Jan 2011 21:54    Post subject:
Science and Scientists:
Scientists publish their findings and others scientists will examine the information or redo the experiments. So if scientific findings are false it will most likely be debunked. Remember the claim of cold fusion back in 1989 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion#Announcement)? And yes there are scientists who deliberately falsify information but certainly in the exact sciences it is kinda hard to get away with it. I think it is not reasonable to think that all the climate scientists are falsifying information and their findings to get more funding. On the other hand they need more funding for climate change research because there are still too many unknowns. For example the exact role of the oceans in distributing warmth globally. ESA's satellite GOCE is tracking that now:
http://www.esa.int/esaLP/LPgoce.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/16/climate-change-oceans-satellite-esa

Global warming:
So you agree it is happening but that it is due to carbon dioxide is an hoax? Earth's climate is a gigantic complex and entropic system compared to the size of us humans. Compared to the universe it is not. There are so many cycles and occurrences that have an influence on this system that some changes noticed during a couple of decades can't hardly been seen as significant for a longer term trend. However we know we are burning tons of fossil fuels and we can roughly calculate the amount of carbon dioxide pushed into the air. And with the research done we can be pretty sure now that not even the dinosaurs have witnessed the current carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Not that they actually could notice that since they had a brain the size of a walnut.

And here is why the climate scientists are right IMO. You can actually calculate how much extra warmth/energy is contained by earth's climate system by the higher carbon dioxide concentration. But still too many unknowns like how much extra water vapour will this create? Water vapour is also a greenhouse gas. Or how many clouds will it cause, clouds deflect energy. You are right by saying that massive factory farming is not helping either but mainly because the massive amount of poo of the animals releases massive amounts of methane that is also a greenhouse gas.

Other reasons to abandon our reliance on fossil fuels:
- The climate changes that have already been set off will destroy many ecosystems. The longer we will continue the worse the outcome.
- We are paying billions of ¥€$ to religious nut cases in Arabia that use the money for political and religious goals.
- The searching and drilling for oil wastes ecosystems.
- We will run out of oil eventually.
- The whole of the oil based economies is extremely wasteful.


Last edited by TSR69 on Sat, 15th Jan 2011 22:12; edited 1 time in total
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LeoNatan
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PostPosted: Sat, 15th Jan 2011 22:03    Post subject:
Frant wrote:
Dinosaurs anybody?

You mean jesus ponies? Scratch Head Laughing
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