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 Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 14:29 Post subject: Why oil will dominate for the next 500 years |
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First of all, i'm talking about mainstream.
Now, Iraq still has around 140 billion barrels of oil deposits. Their export volume is around 1-2 million barrels per day. Their inland consume volume is a lot smaller. Taking into account fuel prices are skyrocketing and there won't be that much more cars in the next 100 years on the streets, Iraq has 200 years worth of oil deposits.
Now, that's just Iraq:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
Total: 1,392,461,050,000 barrels
Plus the uncalculated reserves the US have in Atlantic Ocean and the allegedly huge reserves in Arctic.
European Commission has a vague plan to abandon internal-combustion engines by 2070/2080. But that's just a vision - i'm sure oil lobbyist and thanks to the fact the whole infrastructure on this planet is built on oil will postpone it much further.
Thank you for your attention,
A guy with a big engine
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zipfero
Posts: 8938
Location: White Shaft
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 14:42 Post subject: |
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you're welcome
8 out of 10 dentists prefer zipfero to competing brands(fraich3 and Mutantius)!
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 15:19 Post subject: |
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You do understand that the total reserve is around 1,392 trillions barrels (estimated in found places)?
And you do understand that the worldwide production per day is 84 million barrels?
Do a new calculation, i got 452 years.
You seem to forget that Google's calculator misplaces/reads periods? It's 165296.896 days.
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 15:28 Post subject: |
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| tombraider2 wrote: | You do understand that the total reserve is around 1,392 trillions barrels (estimated and verified)?
And you do understand that the worldwide production per day is 84 million barrels?
Do a new calculation, i got 452 years.
You seem to forget that Google's calculator misplaces/reads periods? It's 165296.896 days. |
I don't use google's calculator, all done in MS Excel.
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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dsergei
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 15:34 Post subject: |
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| dsergei wrote: | | tombraider2 wrote: | You do understand that the total reserve is around 1,392 trillions barrels (estimated in found places)?
And you do understand that the worldwide production per day is 84 million barrels?
Do a new calculation, i got 452 years.
You seem to forget that Google's calculator misplaces/reads periods? It's 165296.896 days. |
Can you calculate my salary? I want a 1000% raise.  |
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 15:38 Post subject: |
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Okay, i forgot one zero in 84 million while calculating. True, by this approach it's 45 years.
But that's a very unobjective and hazy way to calculate approximate runout for crude oil.
As i stated in my first post Iraq's estimated deposits are around 140 billion barrel (that's newer prognosis than that on Wikipedia) and their daily export is 1.8 million barrels (newest information). With this speed it's around 200 years to run empty. Correct, one should take their inland production into account; while it's arounund 100-300k barrels a day it doesn't have that much of an impact on the belt down prognosis. It varies a lot.
It's like taking one extreme to another. Take the whole estimated quantity of crude oil, take the whole estimated worldwide oil production, make a simple divide calculation and there's your number. It's very unobjective way.
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 15:42 Post subject: |
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| tombraider2 wrote: | Okay, i forgot one zero in 84 million while calculating. True, by this approach it's 45 years.
But that's a very unobjective and hazy way to calculate approximate runout for crude oil.
As i stated in my first post Iraq's estimated deposits are around 140 billion barrel (that's newer prognosis than that on Wikipedia) and their daily export is 1.8 million barrels (newest information). With this speed it's around 200 years to run empty. Correct, one should take their inland production into account; while it's arounund 100-300k barrels a day it doesn't have that much of an impact on the belt down prognosis. It varies a lot. |
Yes, currently Iraq produces around 2 million barrels a day, but what will happen when they have to produce 100 times as much because much of the remaining world reserves are gone?
You can't think of this as a localized country, but rather as a global economy, Iraq is only required to export as much as 2 million a day, because the world is consuming oil from Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, etc, the matter of fact is that the world requires around 84 million barrels a day, and when we can't purchase it from Russia or China, we will purchase it from Iraq, the 84 million a day is what we consume, regardless of it's origin...
The only thing that will stop oil consumption will be the raise in prices when oil proves to be extremely difficult to extract because reserves are becoming depleted, and this will only start to happen around 2025 - 2030, at this point, oil will become so expensive that nobody can afford to purchase it.
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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deelix
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:06 Post subject: |
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Thats a very naive way of thinking. We wont be using oil in the future like we do today...
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:06 Post subject: |
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Yes, but these unexplored areas in Pacific Ocean that the US have veto on. And of course Arctic.
While our equipment isn't as advanced as required for safe drilling in Arctic, one day it's inevitable.
Our world is too dependent on oil. Sad but true. And it's hell of a job to reorganize the whole infrastructure to other more efficient renewable energy for example. And this is where superpowers (US, China, Russia, Japan and even India some day) may have deviating stand on this. China is the prime example of not wanting to adapt their already working coal/oil industry to some other and more friendly one. It's just a huge investment which might be beneficial in the long run, it could also slow down or even destroy their economy in the short run. And that's the thing China won't even consider as their goal is to be superpower #1
Every state out there discusses and tries to move over to something much more efficient and beneficial in the long run. Just that their adaptation would be a lot slower than the estimate for crude oil runout according to that simple calculation.
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:20 Post subject: |
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@45 years:
Huge reseach is beeing conducted on how to squeez every bit of oil out of the ground. There's no reason to think that the decline of the oil reserves will behave linearly. It's not like it's just a big black pool underground waiting to be harvestet.
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WaldoJ
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:26 Post subject: |
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Shhh. Research is done by government funded scientists. They're paid to make us feel good and safe... Ronh is right... we're all domed in 45 years. Hard facts and simple maths never lie.
| Sin317 wrote: | | I win, you lose. Or Go fuck yourself. |
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:34 Post subject: |
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| WaldoJ wrote: | | Shhh. Research is done by government funded scientists. They're paid to make us feel good and safe... Ronh is right... we're all domed in 45 years. Hard facts and simple maths never lie. |
I know you're trying to be sarcastic, but the fact is that I'm the last person to fall for any conspiracy theories, and I actually, for the most part, believe the data being released by state funded research.
My problem is with the concept of state power, not with every single action the state does.
But I guess you're not intelligent enough to make that distinction, if I'm against the coercive grip of the state I should be against everything it produces and believe in all wild conspiracies out there!
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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WaldoJ
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:40 Post subject: |
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Shhh. You're wrong. You're an anarchist. You want the state to fail. You're trying to trick us by agreeing with some of content it produces. So that then we all go and get confused. And not know who to trust because if an anarchist accepts some of the state... but not all of the state... and the state isn't all that bad.... WHAT IS GOING ON!
I THINK HIS CALCULATIONS WERE OFF!!! WE HAVE 45 DAYS!!!!
| Sin317 wrote: | | I win, you lose. Or Go fuck yourself. |
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:46 Post subject: |
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| WaldoJ wrote: | Shhh. You're wrong. You're an anarchist. You want the state to fail. You're trying to trick us by agreeing with some of content it produces. So that then we all go and get confused. And not know who to trust because if an anarchist accepts some of the state... but not all of the state... and the state isn't all that bad.... WHAT IS GOING ON!
I THINK HIS CALCULATIONS WERE OFF!!! WE HAVE 45 DAYS!!!! |
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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Przepraszam
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:47 Post subject: |
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I think my physics teacher is a conspiracy nut but
He said that world is controlled by oil barons who do not want solar/wind energy to evolve any furhter...Thats why there is such a slow development of it
so until we run out of it..we are all fucking then
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garus
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 16:49 Post subject: |
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snip
Last edited by garus on Tue, 27th Aug 2024 21:48; edited 1 time in total
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Rofl_Mao
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Location: Nederland
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 17:04 Post subject: |
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I think most people will want oil to dominate. Oil facilitates our current way of living and my guess is most people wouldn't like to see that changed. I'm different though: I'd like to abandon oil ASAP. Maybe even today, right here and right now. As a fuel anyway. If that would mean less material wealth, that's OK. I consider oil as a flimsy and unreliable foundation for our wealth.
Abandoning oil as fuel would make food a lot more expensive, because the average Western meal is currently grown all across the globe. But slowing down the transition to a sustainable economy as much as possible seems to be financially beneficial to various industries. In the end moniez rule for most influential people, so I expect oil to be around for as long as possible.
| Lopin18 wrote: | I think you played too much Fallout 3, Pedo Perk acquired.  |
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fisk
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 17:53 Post subject: |
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heh, you are all calculating this as if the world's population is constant, in 45 years it will have increased by A LOT, also that is more and more people being dependent on fossile fuels. So the more likely scenario is that gas will run out earlier unless hybrid vehicles and alternative fuel sources become more common.
Yes, yes I'm back.
Somewhat.
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Ronhrin
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 17:56 Post subject: |
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| fisk wrote: | | heh, you are all calculating this as if the world's population is constant, in 45 years it will have increased by A LOT, also that is more and more people being dependent on fossile fuels. So the more likely scenario is that gas will run out earlier unless hybrid vehicles and alternative fuel sources become more common. |
Just consider China and India walking out of poverty and being able to afford a higher quality lifestyle.
Almost 2.5 billion people on those two countries at present ready to consume the last remnants of oil that this planet has.
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 18:46 Post subject: |
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| Ronhrin wrote: | | Just consider China and India walking out of poverty and being able to afford a higher quality lifestyle. |
The quality of life in these countries is somewhat rising, true. But the very nature of capitalism model won't allow it to exceed norms. Thanks to China and its cheap as well as hard-working workforce we in the Western countries can enjoy reasonably priced goods. And while China is the number 1 carmaker in the world, people there can't afford all the gas. But as said before, China indeed is advancing in this field. But to a certain point. Do you really think their government is stupid enough to change current state-controlled capitalism? Nah, they want to be the biggest manufacturer in everything, they want to be the governing superpower.
But yeah, experts say in near future India may be the next favorable and cheap place for big conglomerates. I think IBM was the firm that promised to move their plants from China to India because of China's growing quality of life (salaries, etc).
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Rofl_Mao
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Location: Nederland
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 19:22 Post subject: |
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| fisk wrote: | | heh, you are all calculating this as if the world's population is constant, in 45 years it will have increased by A LOT, also that is more and more people being dependent on fossile fuels. So the more likely scenario is that gas will run out earlier unless hybrid vehicles and alternative fuel sources become more common. |
Haha, good point. The population will increase incredibly fast now. Mostly in poor countries. E.g. Pakistan has went from 30 to 150 million inhabitants. I have heard fresh water may become very scarce in the near future (5-10 years), so most of the poor may die of water shortages. Maybe this overpopulation thing will cause some ugly disasters... If only people would stop reproducing too fast! I don't have any children so I guess I've already done all that I can to slow down overpopulation. Apart from grabbing a double barrel, god forbid that would ever be necessary.
| Lopin18 wrote: | | I think you played too much Fallout 3, Pedo Perk acquired. |
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Bigperm
Posts: 1908
Location: Alberta,Canada
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 19:44 Post subject: |
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| Atropa wrote: | @45 years:
Huge reseach is beeing conducted on how to squeez every bit of oil out of the ground. There's no reason to think that the decline of the oil reserves will behave linearly. It's not like it's just a big black pool underground waiting to be harvestet. |
Very true. I am drilling in fields that were abandoned 40 years ago that are now producing very large volumes (Not huge offshore volumes mind you). Enhanced recovery is the name of the game for us junior oil companies.
I am a believer in peak oil though. We have "possibly" already reached this limit. A good book on the subject is "1000 Barrels a second" by Peter Tertzakian.
| Jenni wrote: | | I drunk. I don't fucking care! |
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 20:45 Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I am a believer in peak oil though. We have "possibly" already reached this limit. A good book on the subject is "1000 Barrels a second" by Peter Tertzakian. |
Hear hear!
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| Posted: Thu, 31st Mar 2011 21:24 Post subject: |
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We need to invent a creature, like the BBQ Chicken mutant in Squidbillies, that can produce oil. ... And has 12 legs, and is covered in white breast meat just like the Squidbillies one.
Problem solved.
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| Posted: Sun, 3rd Apr 2011 03:07 Post subject: |
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Who cares I'll be dead by the time it runs out
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| Posted: Sun, 3rd Apr 2011 22:59 Post subject: |
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| GeordieRacer wrote: | | Who cares I'll be dead by the time it runs out |
it won't "runs out", as said earlier, it's not just a giant tank with a faucet on top
unless you die quite quickly, you'll live the energy crisis
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