Jeff Vogel: "The Indie Bubble Is Popping"
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Bendi




Posts: 3395

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 01:14    Post subject: Jeff Vogel: "The Indie Bubble Is Popping"
I recommend, some good observations from someone who's been in the indie industry for a very long tome (20 years now!)
Before you comment read it all Smile

http://jeff-vogel.blogspot.de/2014/05/the-indie-bubble-is-popping.html
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Drowning_witch




Posts: 10818
Location: Strawberry fields
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 07:30    Post subject:
His last paragraph sums it up nicely. preaching to the choir.

No surprise that a human driven activity is unsustainable. that's how we roll. lol wut

But balance will come.

hungry failed devs will



and only good stuff will come again until it peaks and blows up again.
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KGen




Posts: 1081

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 08:14    Post subject:
I'm not convinced his premise of constant number of gamers (X in his article) is true. From what I've read for the last years, this number only rises. He's got some good points though.


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Kaltern




Posts: 5859
Location: Lockerbie, Scotland
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 08:31    Post subject:
The review score of any game can be broken down into this simple equation I have just worked out.

R=(Y÷C)÷20

Where R=Review Score(to 1 decimal place rounded up), Y=Year and C=Cash (million)

So for example, Star Citizen is 2014÷44=45.78÷20=2.3

So it gets a score of 2.3 out of 5.

Oh and assume anything over a score of 5 is a max score and was probably GOTY Laughing
Try it on most games... I'm sure it's right Very Happy


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consolitis
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Posts: 27318

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 10:30    Post subject:


TWIN PEAKS is "something of a miracle."
"...like nothing else on television."
"a phenomenon."
"A tangled tale of sex, violence, power, junk food..."
"Like Nothing On Earth"

~ WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY CAN ONLY BE SEEN ~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHTUOgYNRzY
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Shoshomiga




Posts: 2378
Location: Bulgaria
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 11:25    Post subject: I have left.
I have left.
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Bendi




Posts: 3395

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 11:41    Post subject:
KGen wrote:
I'm not convinced his premise of constant number of gamers (X in his article) is true. From what I've read for the last years, this number only rises. He's got some good points though.


X is not a constant for gamers, it's a constant for money gamers are willing to buy games with Smile Just because there are more games does not mean people have more money to buy them.
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Il_Padrino




Posts: 7560
Location: Greece by the North Sea
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 11:47    Post subject:
Applying an algorithm to rate games is just as idiotic as those who try algorithms to win at roulettes. Especially when the formula has only 2 variables Laughing Laughing Laughing


There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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m3th0d2008




Posts: 9881
Location: Outhouse
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 13:23    Post subject:
tl:dr

What games is he talking about? All Indie games or these overrated pretentious hipster Indie games that were all over gaming media (Fez, Braid and all that bullcrap)?


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KGen




Posts: 1081

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 13:26    Post subject:
Bendi wrote:
KGen wrote:
I'm not convinced his premise of constant number of gamers (X in his article) is true. From what I've read for the last years, this number only rises. He's got some good points though.


X is not a constant for gamers, it's a constant for money gamers are willing to buy games with Smile Just because there are more games does not mean people have more money to buy them.


You're correct, X is the amount of money gamers have to spend, collectively. Somehow I got it wrong. In any case, the point still stands - as the market grows (number of gamers is on the rise) so does the amount of money they are willing to spend.


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flipp




Posts: 1972

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 13:28    Post subject:
m3th0d2008 wrote:
tl:dr

What games is he talking about? All Indie games or these overrated pretentious hipster Indie games that were all over gaming media (Fez, Braid and all that bullcrap)?

Read it. Lazy ass Razz
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m3th0d2008




Posts: 9881
Location: Outhouse
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 13:30    Post subject:
flipp wrote:
m3th0d2008 wrote:
tl:dr

What games is he talking about? All Indie games or these overrated pretentious hipster Indie games that were all over gaming media (Fez, Braid and all that bullcrap)?

Read it. Lazy ass Razz
Okay


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Aquma




Posts: 2805

PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 14:18    Post subject:
What I don't get is why call it "popping" and see it as something bad? I would rather call it "maturing". Honestly, right now we're in that precarious point in the cycle when everyone and their dog thinks they can make games - and not just games, mind you - but genre-changing, mindblowing hits. It'll pass. Some of these people will stay in the industry and prosper, others will go back to selling burgers and driving with pizzas. The industry itself, along with the market, will fracture and specialize, which will allow a certain number of developers to be sustained alongside the big dogs, the AAA sector - and thanks to that specialization and fracturing it'll be a bit easier to be seen by a given audience, so multimillion $ marketing campaigns won't be needed as much.

In the "Vanishing of Ethan Carter" thread there's a pretty good analogy to movie industry, namely horror movies. There's a certain audience for them and you don't have to be the next Ridley Scott and have the next Stephen King as your writer, to be recognized. You just have to make an adequatly well done horror and the audience will like you and remember you enough to buy/see your next work. And it definitely is possible to make quite a profit out of it.

It worked for movies, even before that it worked for books. I believe it can - and in time will - work the same way for games. There'll certainly be less developers and less indie games than there are now, but it won't be as bad as some people fear and it'll be for the better in the long run.
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Kaltern




Posts: 5859
Location: Lockerbie, Scotland
PostPosted: Fri, 30th May 2014 15:12    Post subject:
Il_Padrino wrote:
Applying an algorithm to rate games is just as idiotic as those who try algorithms to win at roulettes. Especially when the formula has only 2 variables Laughing Laughing Laughing


You do realise it was a cynical joke right?
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